After Ukraine, Moldova is the country most proximate to Russia's full-scale invasion. Moldova has received the most Ukrainian refugees per capita and has seen a ramping up of its own hybrid war with Russia, evidenced by Russia's flagrant election interference in 2024.

Equally, Moldova is suddenly exposed to new opportunities and a new visibility on the world – or at least European – stage. Its president, Maia Sandu, is the most successful promoter of Moldova abroad, and EU accession is progressing apace.

This project aims to understand how these changes are articulated by Moldova's political elites and factions, and understood by society. Where is Moldova going? How does it balance these threats and opportunities, and their dual sidedness?

Data collection for this project has so far included 10 focus groups conducted across Moldova in 2024-2025, in Russian and Romanian, and in four Moldovan cities.

This project is funded by the Folke Bernadotte Academy.

A UNICEF exhibition of Ukrainian refugees, 2024 (Eleanor Knott, February 2024)